The Efficacy of U.S. Sanctions for Promoting Desired Anti-Trafficking Policies
Glenn M. Harden, PhD(c) | September 22 | 1:45-2:45 PM
Topic: Research | Knowledge Level: Advanced
The U.S. Victims of Trafficking and Violence Prevention Act requires the U.S. government to evaluate other countries' anti-trafficking policies and impose economic sanctions on those countries which are not making significant efforts. Sanctions have been controversial, with some scholars arguing that they are counter-productive (e.g., Chuang 2006). Until now, no scholar has tested whether the threat of sanctions has encouraged desired policy outcomes. This study asks: Has the threat of U.S. sanctions promoted anti-trafficking policies? To overcome selection bias, the researcher first models whether a country eligible for sanctions is, in fact, sanctioned, and then estimates the credibility of the threat of sanctions for other countries in danger of becoming sanctionable. Survival analysis is used to estimate the influence of the threat of sanctions on the time to the introduction of six anti-trafficking policies: criminalization, any revision to the trafficking legal regime, first institutionalization of an intersectoral coordinating body, initiation of a national action plan, formalization of a National Referral Mechanism, and institutionalization of a victim reflection period. The analysis controls for the influence of reputational concerns, the actual imposition of sanctions, and many other factors. Findings indicate that the threat of sanctions has promoted criminalization, intersectoral coordinating bodies, and national action plans, but not other legal change or victim protection policies. In general, countries which have lower sanctions credibility are more likely to introduce the desired policy, suggesting that uncertainty is encouraging policy change. The presentation concludes with recommendations for further research, policy advocacy, and for the conduct of U.S. diplomacy.
Presentation Objectives:
· Provide an overview of the study (existing literature, research question, method, and findings)
· Discuss implications for policy advocacy and U.S. diplomacy